Saturday, January 31, 2009

Another forecast

The Super Bowl isn't the only championship being played on Sunday. At 3:30 A.M., Rafael Nadal will take on Roger Federer in the Austrailian Open Final. Federer will be trying once again to tie Pete Sampras's record for major titles.
As a guy who always has to make a prediction, I feel obliged to pick the winner. The pick? I like Nadal. He is an overall better athelete than Federer. The Spin Master or, as I call him, Banana Man, will emerge victorious.

Friday, January 30, 2009

Tigers should return to standard relief style

In the 2008, one thing that really hurt the Tigers was their shaky relief pitching. First Zumaya got hurt. His injury made it hard to get a good setup.
But things really got bad when the Tigers decided that Todd Jones wasn't fit to be the closer anymore. They then spent the remainder of the season trying to replace him.
It didn't work.
If the Tigers want to be successful in '09, their best course of action for relief is to re-create the combination they used to use. Under this plan, Rodney would pitch the 7th, Zumaya the 8th, and Jones the 9th.
Now that the Tigers have added Brandon Lyon they can return to this format. The simple solution being that Lyon replaces Jones.
Thankfully, Joel Zumaya has managed to stay healthy. If he continues, everything should fall into place.

Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Why Ozzie is worth starting

This year the Red Wings got off to a slow start and did not look as dominant as usual. Among those who received a lot of criticism lately is goaltender Chris Osgood. Ozzie has gotten off to one his worst starts in years. Now some even question if he is fit to start. The case sounds right: Osgood has looked sloppy and his backup, Ty Conklin, has been doing well. Conklin has already gotten his followers who shout to Mike Babcock that he should be the one in net. Scream all you want, but Ozzie's here to stay.
You can laugh all you want, but let me remind you that several reacted the same way when I selected the Philadelphia Eagles to beat the Giants in the playoffs, not to mention when I followed it up with their downfall against Arizona. But I digress. We aren't here to talk about football, we're here to discuss the Detroit Red Wings goalie dilemma.
Why should Ozzie stay? Hasn't he been playing bad this year? Ah, good point but I have a theory, and let me explain it before you make any assumptions that I'm off my nut. While Osgood did admittedly start poorly, he has looked much better since returning from his groin injury. Expect this to continue. My thoery is that Ozzie came into the year and kind of fell asleep at first, blinded by pride, then panicked and played even worse. What he needed was some time off. The injury gave him that time to regroup.
So now I list my 5 reasons why Ozzie is worthy of the starter role.
1.He is likely to bounce back. This sort of goes back to what I just stated: Ozzie is recovering. There is a good chance that Osgood can use this momentum to shine in goal during the second half. Don't be shocked if he returns to being the goalie he was last season.
2.Babcock has faith in him. Throughout the season, Babcock has defended Osgood and repeatedly stated that he is the starter. Do you disagree? Fine. Take Babcock's job. See how you handle it.
3.You can't ignore the past. One reason many would prefer Conklin is that they believe he is capable of leading the Wings to a Stanley Cup. Ozzie, however, HAS led them to a Stanley Cup, and he shined that year, being considered by many the best goalie in the NHL. The argument is "Don't be a slave to history." But history can repeat itself, and it does so many times. How else did we win 11 Stanley Cups? Ozzie has done it, his opponent hasn't, which brings me to #4
4. Conks isn't ready. Don't get me wrong. I have nothing against Ty Conklin. The man is an outstanding player. But his role is to be the helper. He is Detroit's Chester Taylor, a solid no.2, but not good enough to be THE GUY. Conklin has done good in the game's he's played, but if he became the starter, the pressure might ruin him altogether.
5.The team is behind him NHL players play best when with a familiar goalie. Ozzie is that goalie. The Wings don't know Conklin well enough to play with him as their primary starter yet. When the team knows their goalie, they are better at supporting him and usually play better. Who better than Osgood to lead them? Osgood, who led them to a championship. Osgood, who soon became the most underrated goalie in the NHL. Osgood, who defied his naysayers who claimed he was inconsistent (I'm not afraid to admit I was among them at the time). Osgood, who made the miracle save in Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Finals as time expired to seal the victory (and cup) for Detroit.
Scream all you want but this is Ozzie's team, and that won't change anytime soon.

Super Bowl Forecast

I'm about to make what is possibly my toughest pick of the year.
In review, my season went well. I finished at the top of the standings in my league. In wild card week I went an even 2-2. I followed up with a 3-1 divisional week. I did what most people did by picking the Steelers and Ravens in the AFC but most would be surprised by my pick of Philadelphia to upset the New York Giants. But I couldn't resist the temptation to pick Carolina over Arizona. I then selected Pittsburgh and Arizona, and many laughed at me, saying either that Baltimore was too hot to be stopped or that Arizona was highly overmatched by Philly, but I learned from the Carolina game that you can't underestimate the Cards.
So, who to pick? This is really, really tough. When you size the teams up, Pittsburgh appears to be very dominant, but Arizona seems like the team to pick for most people. It's natural to see why, Arizona is the fan favorite: a team that's never done it and that has recently built a lot of momentum. But many are ignoring that Baltimore was pretty similar with their own momentum, and yet Pittsburgh shut them down and emerged victorious.
It's tempting to follow the crowd and take Arizona, but I can't escape the feeling that this will go down the same way the World Series did for Tampa Bay. I like the Steelers because of their superior defensive play.
reg season- 9-4-1
playoffs: 7-3
Feedback: What do you think of the Super Bowl?

Tuesday, January 27, 2009

Lions headed in right direction (sort of), need to continue

Following the NFL's first 0-16 season, our Lions did what any team would have done- fired their head coach (generally most teams would fire the GM as well, but the Lions have already done that).

About a week ago, they hired Tennessee defensive coordinater Jim Shwartz as head coach. The optimism about Shwartz comes primarily from one name: Bill Belicheck. Shortly after his arrival, Shwartz frequently reminded everyone that he learned from the Hooded Master. No coach currently in the NFL is respected more than Belicheck, who led the New England Patroits to three Super Bowl Championships in four years, and later made them the only 18-0 team in NFL history.
So, can Shwartz show some of Belicheck in him when he coaches the Lions next season? It's hard to tell right now because assitant coaches tend to be unpredictable when bumped up to the head spot.
So far, Shwartz has done a better job at hiring assitants than the Lions generally do. Rod Marinelli made O-line coach Jim Colleto the head offensive coordinator and his son-in-law Joe Barry as his defensive coordinator. Shwartz went out and hired offensive coordinator Scott Linehan for the same job. Linehan has had a lot of success, although he struggled recently with the St. Louis Rams. Linehan is not neccessarily the best man for the job, but at least he is qualified for the position. Next, Shwartz hired Gunther Cunningham as his defensive coordinator. Like Linehan, Cunningham was already at the same position before he was hired.
So now that the coaching's taken care of, what about the players? Getting successful players comes down to having a good GM and some luck. Quick pop quiz: What does Lions GM Martin Mayhew have in common with head coach Jim Shwartz? Answer: Both are unpredictable. Don't tell me that the Lions decision to keep Mayhew will lead to more terrible seasons, because what if Mayhew left, went somewhere else, and became executive of the year? Then the Lions would curse themselves. How could we let them go like that? They were right in front of our faces! And don't tell me that Mayhew is about to lead them to a Super Bowl dynasty, either because it's virtually impossible to tell what he will do beforehand.
So the question is: What should Mayhew (not to mention president Tom Lewand) do? In the draft, his best move would be selecting tackle Andre Smith first overall. Why? Because offensive lineman taken in the first round are generally safer bets than quarterbacks taken at that time. Look at Brady: 199th overall and he won 3 Super Bowls, set a record for TD passes in a season, and was the leader of the only 18-0 team ever. Look at Favre: taken late in round one only to become arguably the greatest quarterback of alltime. And it works the negative way, too. Look at busts like Ryan Leaf, Akili Smith, Vince Young, Heath Shuler, JaMarcus Russell, I could go on forever.
With the first pick taken care of, what should the Lions do next? It's pretty straightforward from there: find someone to draw double teams away from Calvin Johnson and spend the rest of the draft rebuilding the defense. Quarterback would best if taken in another way. The Lions have three options: 1. Sign a free agent Few options are here. The Lions only chance may be in an old reliable such as Kurt Warner, Jeff Garcia, or Kerry Collins. While Warner and Garcia are pondering retirement, there is a chance that Collins may be interested in coming here because of Jim Shwartz. Right now I'd say the chances are about 40-60, in favor of Collins returning to Tennessee. 2. Look for someone to trade with This probably isn't the right way to go. The Lions can't afford to give up any of their few good players. The only real chance here is if a QB decides he wants out, making the team willing to accept almost any offer. It's not likely though. 3. Build from within Silly as it sounds, the Lions may already have someone qualified for the job. Drew Stanton has yet to have his chance and who knows? He could be a hidden gem. Maybe someone else is. But overall there isn't a good chance of this happening.
The problem is that there really is no right answer when it comes to picking the new quarterback. The Lions might as well line up the candidates and ask which of them stayed at a Holiday Inn Express last night.

Feedback: If you have a comment on the Lions' future, post it.